Decomposition Analysis of District Heating System based on Complemented Kaya Identity

AbstractThe paper analyses possibilities for CO2 emission reduction into the centralized district heating system by using the index decomposition analysis: Kaya identity equation. The classical Kaya equation is complemented with an energy efficiency indicator of a district heating system. The paper focuses on the impact of the Kaya equation components on the CO2 emission reduction. The elaborated methodology is tested in order to analyze possibilities for CO2 emission reduction at district heating systems in Latvia. 3 scenarios were formed for the forecast of the CO2 emission reduction. In case the current model for the state development is continued (scenario1) CO2 emissions will be reduced for 13%; however, in the scenario of orderly and balanced DH systems they will reduce for 29% by 2020 as compared to 2012

Deliberation Platform for Energy Transition Policies: How to Make Complex Things Simple

The energy transition from inefficient fossil-based to sustainable energy systems can face various lock-ins. There are no pathways that are free of stress. However, many routes are possible. A good understanding of the dynamic behavior of systems is crucial, and proper support tools are needed to assess the outcomes of every selected pathway. This study aims to develop an Internet-based interface tool for the national energy simulation model as a tool for a “hybrid forum”; study energy transition lock-ins in one of the Eastern European countries; and apply the interface tool to study different pathways to Latvia’s climate and energy goals. System dynamics are used to reach the goals of the study. A causal loop diagram is applied to study feedback loops and lock-ins, a stock-and-flow structure is used to build a simulation model, and a user interface tool is built on top of it. The results show that the developed interface tool is user-friendly and can be used as a discussion platform. The results from the case study reveal how the soft power of Russia can lock in the energy transition in Eastern European countries by creating policy choices with additive effects and what pathways towards energy transition can be used to lock-out

Power Sector Flexibility through Power-to-Heat and Power-to-Gas Application – System Dynamics Approach

The European Union has set the target for energy sector decarbonization. Variable renewable energy technologies are necessary to reach this target, but a high level of variable renewable energy raises the flexibility issues. In this research paper, the flexibility issue is addressed by analysing possibility of sector coupling via power-to-heat and power-to-gas applications by using system dynamics approach. The model is applied to the case of Latvia. Model results show that power-to-heat is a viable flexibility measure, and with additional financial incentives, it can even help to move towards decarbonization of the energy sector. In the best scenario, heat from surplus power can cover 37 % from total heat production in 2050. Unfortunately, in spite of a well-developed gas infrastructure, power-to-gas application is still very immature, and, in the best-case scenario with high incentives in power-to-gas technologies, only 7 % from available power surplus could be allocated for power-to-gas technologies in 2050

Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production

The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse development perspectives for wood pellet production. To reach the goal, a system dynamics model of energy wood supplies, processing, and consumption is built. Production capacity, energy consumption, changes in energy and technology efficiency, required labour source, prices of wood, energy and labour are taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out and indicate that the model constitutes the dynamic hypothesis. It is found that the more is invested into pellets production, the higher the specific profit per production unit compared to wood logs and wood chips. As a result, wood chips production is decreasing dramatically and is replaced by wood pellets. The limiting factor for pellet industry growth is availability of wood sources. This is governed by felling limit set by the government based on sustainable forestry principles

Will Aggregator Reduce Renewable Power Surpluses? A System Dynamics Approach for the Latvia Case Study

Power demand-side management has been identified as one of the possible elements towards a more flexible power system in case of increased capacities of variable renewable energy sources—solar and wind energy. The market coordinators or aggregators are introduced to adjust the electricity consumption by following the market situation. However, the role of aggregators is mainly analysed from the economic perspective, and the demand side management is performed to maximise the utilisation of low price power during off-peak hours. However, this research focuses on analysing the introduction of aggregators as a future player to increase the total share of renewable power and decrease the surplus solar and wind electricity occurrence. An in-depth system dynamics model has been developed to analyse the hourly power production and power consumption rates at the national level for the Latvia case study. The results show that introducing aggregators and load shifting based on standard peak shaving can increase the share of surplus power and does not benefit from increased utilisation of solar and wind power. On the contrary, demand-side management based on available RES power can decrease the surplus power by 5%

Study of Hygrothermal Processes in External Walls with Internal Insulation

Being an important contributor to the final energy consumption, historic buildings built before 1945 have high specific heating energy consumption compared to current energy standards and norms. However, they often cannot be insulated from the outside due to their heritage and culture value. Internal insulation is an alternative. However internal insulation faces challenges related to hygrothermal behaviour leading to mold growth, freezing, deterioration and other risks. The goal of this research is to link hygrothermal simulation results with experimental results for internally insulated historic brick masonry to assess correlation between simulated and measured data as well as the most influential parameters. The study is carried out by both a mathematical simulation tool and laboratory tests of historic masonry with internal insulation with four insulation materials (mineral wool, EPS, wood fiber and granulated aerogel) in a cold climate (average 4000 heating degree days). We found disparity between measured and simulated hygrothermal performance of studied constructions due to differences in material parameters and initial conditions of materials. The latter plays a more important role than material parameters. Under a steady state of conditions, the condensate tolerating system varies between 72.7 % and 80.5 % relative humidity, but in condensate limiting systems relative humidity variates between 73.3 % and 82.3 %. The temperature between the masonry wall and all insulation materials has stabilized on average at +10 °C. Mold corresponding to Mold index 3 was discovered on wood fiber mat